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FSACCI Webinar | Economic Forecast in light of South Africa's National Lockdown and Credit Rate Downgrade


Event ended.

Join us on Thursday, 9th April where we will be joined by Jeff Schultz and Nicholas Borain of BNP Paribas as they will respectively lend their economic and political expertise and assess SA's Economic Outlook given the National Lockdown.


>> Venue: on your laptop at the link:  https://zoom.us/j/173905096


Join us to hear their insights as they discuss the below key messages: 

  • We have revised down our 2020 GDP forecast for South Africa further and now expect a 4% growth contraction versus -1.2% previously.
  • The Covid-19 pandemic is likely to severely hurt supply and demand channels. The latter particularly exacerbated by a three-week lockdown, which we deem a minimum requirement.
  • We expect the Treasury to revisit its fiscal framework in the coming months; a budget deficit of 9.1% of GDP for FY 2020-21 is now our base case.
  • While the SARB has announced measures to improve liquidity and market function, more action will likely be required as the debt service burden balloons on another inevitable ramp up in local bond issuance.
  • While we do not foresee an imminent IMF programme, we think it possible for the country to approach external sources for targeted financing as it looks to try and contain fiscal damage in FY 2020-21.
  • Adjusting prudential regulations is an avenue that could be explored, though it could be seen as a first step towards a less palatable prescribed assets policy, and therefore unlikely (right now), we think.



South_Africa_Extraordinary_Times_BNP_Paribas.pdf (PDF • 1 MB)


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